Rosebank Climate Costs Dwarf Oil Gains
- An analysis estimates climate damage from Rosebank and Jackdaw oil fields could reach between £119bn and £336bn over coming decades.
- Fossil fuel promoter Adura puts the economic value of the two fields at £28.7bn — a figure the analysis says would be dwarfed by carbon costs.
- The UK government has not yet made a final decision on whether to approve development of the two North Sea fields.
Developing the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea would impose climate costs many times greater than any economic benefit they might bring to the UK, according to a new analysis.
A stark gap between damage and projected gain
The analysis estimates that carbon pollution from the two fields would inflict between £119bn and £336bn of economic damage over coming decades. That range stands in stark contrast to the £28.7bn in economic value projected by Adura, the fossil fuel company promoting the fields' development. On the most conservative estimate, the projected climate bill would be more than four times Adura's figure; at the upper bound, it would approach twelve times that amount.
Decision still pending
Both Rosebank and Jackdaw remain under active consideration by the UK government, which has yet to announce a final decision. The approval question has already emerged as a significant political test for ministers, and the new damage estimates add further complexity to that calculation. Whether the government will treat long-run carbon costs as a material factor in its assessment remains unresolved.
The divergence between the two sets of figures illustrates the contested economics at the heart of North Sea fossil fuel policy, where financial projections from industry and climate-damage calculations routinely point in opposite directions. Until the government reaches a decision, the scale of that gap — and which arithmetic ministers choose to weight — remains an open question.
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