Lira Narrowly Leads Alagoas Senate Poll
- Arthur Lira (PP) leads the Alagoas Senate race with 20% of combined voting intentions, followed by Renan Calheiros (MDB) on 18% and Marina JHC (PSDB) on 15%.
- Nineteen per cent of voters remain undecided and 12% say they will vote blank, null, or abstain, leaving a large share of the electorate unallocated.
- The two Senate seats are contested by seven named candidates, with the bottom half of the field — including one candidate who scored zero — unlikely to threaten the top three
Arthur Lira (PP) holds a narrow lead in the contest for Alagoas's two Senate seats, polling at 20% of combined voting intentions, according to a Quaest survey released on Monday. The margin separating the top three candidates is slim enough to leave the outcome firmly in doubt.
A tight three-way contest
Renan Calheiros (MDB) sits just two points behind on 18%, with Marina JHC (PSDB) close in third on 15%. The figures represent the combined share of votes allocated across the first and second Senate places. Davi Davino Filho (Republicanos) follows on 10%, Dr. Wanderley (MDB) on 5%, and Mariedson (Democrata) on 1%. Alexandre Fleming (UP) registered no measurable support.
The competitive dynamics of the Alagoas race echo patterns seen elsewhere in Brazil's north-east. A parallel Quaest survey of the Alagoas gubernatorial contest has also shown an exceptionally tight field, underscoring the volatility of the state's political landscape ahead of 2026.
Undecided vote could prove decisive
With 19% of respondents still undecided and a further 12% indicating they intend to vote blank or null, or abstain altogether, a substantial portion of the electorate remains unallocated. That pool is large enough to reshape the final standings considerably, and it means no candidate can claim a secure path to one of the two seats at this stage.
The closeness of the race, combined with a high rate of indecision, suggests the Alagoas Senate contest will remain fluid well into the campaign period. Similar Quaest polling in Paraná has shown how quickly frontrunner positions can consolidate or collapse as voter preferences crystallise.
