Saxony-Anhalt Votes: AfD Polls at 40%
- The AfD leads Saxony-Anhalt polls at 40%, against the CDU's 23%, one week before a state election that could produce Germany's first far-right regional government.
- Voter frustration centres on economic policy, migration and broken political promises, with Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz cited more often than either state-level candidate as
- Post-election coalition arithmetic is fraught: the CDU rules out both the AfD and Die Linke as partners, leaving the path to stable government deeply uncertain if the AfD falls
One week before voters in Saxony-Anhalt go to the polls, the Alternative für Deutschland holds a commanding 40 per cent in surveys by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, more than seventeen points clear of the CDU on 23 per cent — a lead that has raised the prospect, for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic, of a German state being governed by a party classified in part as far-right extremist.
The dominant mood: anger rather than enthusiasm
Reporting from Halberstadt, Stendal and Magdeburg, the picture that emerges is less one of ideological conviction than of accumulated frustration. The phrase heard most often from voters inclined towards the AfD was a variation of "Jetzt reicht es uns" — roughly, "We have had enough." Grievances centre on broken political promises, the state of the economy, migration policy and internal security. Several voters said they had supported the CDU or the SPD at the previous election but would not do so again.
What is striking is that these complaints bear close resemblance to those heard from voters in North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Württemberg. The East-West divide that has long been invoked to explain AfD strength in the eastern states appears, at least in this election cycle, to be a less reliable frame than it once was.
Merz, not Siegmund, drives the AfD vote
Despite intensive media coverage of AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund (35) — including analysis of his widely shared social-media presence — his name is heard comparatively rarely on the streets. The same is true of incumbent Minister-President Sven Schulze (47, CDU), who nonetheless leads on the preferred-leader question: 48 per cent of respondents nominate Schulze, against 32 per cent for Siegmund. Half of those surveyed want a CDU-led state government; 35 per cent prefer one led by the AfD.
The figure whose name arises most frequently among pro-AfD voters explaining their choice is Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz (70), whose seat in Berlin lies roughly two hours' drive to the east. Anger at the federal government — and specifically at spending on Ukraine while domestic health, welfare and pension reforms bring cuts — surfaces repeatedly. Many voters distinguish between those who receive state support and those who feel they do not.
For context on how the CDU's regional strategy is being framed in the run-up to polling day, see Söder Backs CDU Candidate in Saxony-Anhalt Election Push.
A teacher's warning and a classroom divided
The tensions generated by the AfD's rise have spilled into institutions beyond politics. In Arneburg, near Stendal, a craft teacher, Max Heckel (40), was asked by pupils for his view of the AfD. He made his opposition plain. He was subsequently reported by pupils, received a formal written warning, and has since contested it through the courts. The case has become a political cause célèbre, illustrative, its participants say, of how polarisation is now playing out in schools, sports clubs, workplaces and families.
Russia, Ukraine and the question of money
Attitudes towards Russia vary considerably. At a demonstration in Halberstadt in August, some participants openly praised Vladimir Putin and reproduced Russian government narratives about the war in Ukraine. Others expressed a more cautious position: opposing the invasion while fearing escalation and the risk of Germany being drawn more deeply into the conflict. A recurrent theme is the perception that funding for Ukraine and domestic austerity are two sides of the same ledger — a sentiment the reporter notes is no longer confined to Saxony-Anhalt.
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen data show the AfD and the CDU level at 27 per cent each when voters are asked which party is best placed to resolve the state's economic problems. On refugees and asylum, the AfD leads at 36 per cent; the CDU registers less than half that figure on the same question.
The post-election arithmetic
Should the AfD emerge as the largest party but be denied government through a blocking coalition, the political situation is described as potentially explosive. The CDU formally excludes cooperation with the AfD; a separate party-conference resolution bars collaboration with Die Linke. Any attempt to form a minority CDU-led government reliant on Linke support — against an AfD that may be nearly twice the CDU's size — would require the CDU to explain a position it is already struggling to articulate to its own voters and members. The word Brandmauer — firewall — draws irritated reactions across much of the state.
Whatever the result next Sunday, the question of how Germany's mainstream parties respond to a party polling at 40 per cent in one of its sixteen states will become harder, not easier, to answer.
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